VestreamMost people picture a token unlock as a single day: tokens release, holders sell, the price drops. The research suggests something less obvious. The price pressure usually starts weeks earlier, and by the time tokens actually release, much of the move may already have happened.
This article explains how unlocks tend to affect markets. It doesn't tell you what to do with any position. An unlock is one input among many.
Unlock dates are public, so the market positions ahead of them. Research on more than 16,000 unlocks found roughly 90% were followed by negative price pressure, typically starting about 30 days before. Who receives the tokens, and how big the unlock is relative to what actually trades, matter more than the headline size.
What the research found
Keyrock, a crypto market maker, analysed more than 16,000 token unlocks in From Locked to Liquidity: What 16,000+ Token Unlocks Teach Us. As reported by crypto.news and ChainCatcher, its main findings were:
- About 90% of unlock events resulted in price declines.
- Prices began to decline around 30 days before the unlock.
- Team unlocks were the most disruptive, investor unlocks were more controlled, and ecosystem unlocks were the gentlest.
- Large unlocks, above 5% of supply, triggered volatility immediately, while frequent small unlocks applied continuous pressure.
- Around $600 million of tokens enter circulation through unlocks every week.
Keyrock's own report page wasn't accessible when this article was researched, so these figures are cited from that coverage.
Why the move starts before the unlock
The core reason is simple: the date is public. Vesting schedules sit in smart contracts and on unlock calendars, so everyone can see an unlock coming. ChainCatcher's summary of the Keyrock report attributes the early decline to two groups: "Prices begin to decline 30 days before the unlock, primarily driven by retail expectations and institutional investors' hedging strategies."
- Holders anticipating selling sell first, so they aren't selling into everyone else later.
- Institutional holders hedge their exposure ahead of the release rather than waiting for it.
When enough of the market acts early, the selling that everyone expected on unlock day gets spread across the weeks before it. That's why checking a token's unlock only on the day tends to be too late to be useful.
Not all unlocks are equal
Who receives the tokens
ChainCatcher's summary describes team unlocks as "the most disruptive due to a lack of coordination, leading to significant drops from individual sell-offs." Many individuals, each deciding separately, can sell into the open market at once.
Investor unlocks are "usually more controllable, as they employ complex hedging strategies", and crypto.news notes investors often sell over the counter, which keeps some of that supply off the public order book. Ecosystem unlocks, which fund grants and development, are described as contributing to long-term stability.
How big it is compared with what actually trades
The headline number of tokens unlocking tells you little on its own. Two comparisons are more useful:
- Against circulating supply, not total supply. Total supply includes tokens that may not reach the market for years.
- Against daily trading volume. Vestream calls this the absorption ratio: the unlock's value divided by the token's 24-hour trading volume. Above 1 means the unlock is worth more than a full day of trading.
Vestream also shows each unlock as a share of market cap, meaning how much of the token's total value is hitting the market at once.
One cliff or a steady drip
Keyrock's findings split by shape. A large one-off unlock, above 5% of supply, tends to spark volatility straight away. A steady run of small monthly unlocks looks harmless in isolation but applies pressure every single period. For more on how unlock frequency shapes behaviour, see how unlock cadence shapes investor psychology.
A caution about the numbers
Ratios are only as good as the data behind them, and trading volume is where they break most easily. In September 2026, Vestream's page for Movement (MOVE) flagged a small upcoming unlock, worth about $14,800, as high sell-pressure risk. The absorption ratio was close to 600×. The reason was the denominator: MOVE's Ethereum DEX pairs were doing only tens of dollars of daily volume, so almost none of its trading happened where the ratio was measuring it.
The lesson generalises. Before trusting any unlock-to-volume ratio, check where the token actually trades. A token that trades mostly away from the venues being measured will look far riskier than it is.
A real example: Falcon Finance
On 14 September 2026, Falcon Finance (FF) released 9.56 million FF from Sablier vesting contracts, worth about $1.3 million at the time. FF fell around 10% that day while Bitcoin rose about 2%, so the move wasn't simply the wider market. FF has unlocked at least monthly since May, and twice a month since July. At the time of writing, its next large tranche is 21.9 million FF on 1 October 2026, worth about $2.9 million.
It's worth being precise about what this shows. The unlock and the fall happened on the same day, but that's correlation, not proof. That tranche was small relative to FF's supply, and a single day's move has many possible causes. The more useful point is the schedule itself: a recurring pattern like FF's is visible weeks in advance to anyone looking.
How to read an unlock before it lands
- 1Find the date and size, in tokens and in dollars.
- 2Compare it with circulating supply, not total supply.
- 3Identify who receives it: team, investors or ecosystem.
- 4Compare it with daily volume, and check where the token actually trades before trusting the ratio.
- 5Look 30 days ahead, not only at the next date. Several smaller unlocks can add up.
- 6Check the pattern: a one-off cliff or a recurring schedule.
For building a fuller estimate, see how to estimate the price impact of a token unlock. To find upcoming dates, see the unlock calendar.
If you're the one receiving tokens
The date matters for a different reason if the tokens are yours: you have to claim them, and many people don't. Measuring vault balances on the Smithii vesting program, about 6 in 10 schedules that had finished vesting still held unclaimed tokens, some more than a year after they ended. In the UK the unlock date can also decide when you're taxed, which is covered in UK tax on vesting tokens.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do token prices always fall before an unlock?
No. Keyrock's analysis found about 90% of unlocks were followed by price declines, which means roughly one in ten weren't. Recipient type, size relative to liquidity and wider market conditions all matter.
How far ahead of an unlock does the effect start?
The Keyrock research, as reported, found prices began declining around 30 days before the unlock.
Which unlocks tend to have the biggest effect?
Team unlocks, according to the research, because many uncoordinated individuals can sell at once. Large unlocks relative to circulating supply and daily volume also matter more than the raw token count.
What is an absorption ratio?
Vestream's absorption ratio is an unlock's value divided by the token's 24-hour trading volume. Above 1 means the unlock is worth more than a full day of trading. It can be misleading for tokens that mostly trade on venues the volume figure doesn't capture.
Should I sell before a token unlock?
This article doesn't make that call. An unlock is one input among many, and a well-known one may already be reflected in the price by the time it arrives.
Sources
- From Locked to Liquidity: What 16,000+ Token Unlocks Teach Us (Keyrock)
- crypto.news: coverage of the Keyrock study, including recipient-type findings
- ChainCatcher: coverage of the Keyrock study, including timing and size findings
- Vestream on-chain index: Falcon Finance, Movement and Smithii figures, September 2026